Market Perspective

Webinar: Mid-Year Economic Update — It’s Getting Hot in Here!

July 26, 2021
The C2FO Team
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With inflation top-of-mind — June’s year-over-year rate was the highest in over 10 years — our team looks at what’s feeding inflation’s fire. 

Echoing our April webinar, summer’s economic indicators like wages, savings and wealth remain strong. Inflation, though, is now firmly affecting our everyday living expenses, as confirmed by two straight months of 5%, year-over-year increases in the Consumer Price Index. 

But will these inflation rates persist? In our July 21 economic update webinar, J. Eric Kelley, executive VP and director of research and fixed income for UMB Bank, shared a newer Fed measure that discounts volatile index elements and suggests that inflation is within recent expectations. 

Comparing 2021 to 2020, Kelley said, “When you’re in recovery, you’re going to have some big price jumps. The Fed is saying that (inflation) is transitory, that it’s going to roll back down and it won’t stick.” 

Our webinar examines just what has many US households feeling confident and even giddy about taking on major life milestones, including moving, changing jobs or even employers. Kelley discusses an all-too-real aspect of inflation in his own household, and C2FO SVP of Capital Finance Chris Atkins speaks to what this all can mean in maintaining or building a team at work. 

Discussion topics include:

  • Rising aggregate amounts of US income, savings and wealth have families feeling financially strong and willing to spend. 

  • Why rising home values should not be seen as a housing bubble, like the one that occurred in the mid-2000s.

  • How recipients chose to use their stimulus check money.

  • Remote work opportunities can have a “flattening” effect on hiring, disrupt wages and challenge teams’ continuity. 

  • The percentage of workers who return to the workforce after retiring early at ages 55-62 — and why.

  • The near-term future of GDP, interest rates and the S&P 500. 

  • How the end of unemployment benefits can boost the economy as a whole. 

  • What this all means for banks’ balance sheets.

About the presenters:

J. Eric Kelley has been with UMB Bank for more than 20 years, all of which he has spent in asset management. He is responsible for oversight of UMB’s research department and directs product development and strategy for the Fixed Income group. Eric also sits on the bank’s ALCO committee and Economic Research team.

Chris Atkins leads the C2FO Capital Finance team, which focuses on serving C2FO customers by fulfilling out-of-network capital needs via lending and factoring facilities. Before joining C2FO, Chris was a private equity and debt investor at Main Street Capital Corp. Previously, he worked in the banking industry as a regulator with the FDIC and as an officer at FirstBank. Chris holds an MBA from The University of Texas at Austin and a BS in Finance from Liberty University. 

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